Will I witness a power change?

Reading some of the blogs and coverage of recent developments in Argentina I'm beginning to wonder if the Kirchners will still be in power by the time I leave in early 2009. More and more commentaries seem to suggest their time in office is numbered. Of course there seems to be a degree of wishful thinking in some of the pieces written, but the author of this particular article seems convinces that a leadership change is inevitable and present a fairly compelling case.

Although he cites various reasons for his argument, the one that most interests me is the idea of the Kirchner's decreasing financial clout.

The Kirchners increased spending during the crisis in order to buy friends and influence, but a reduction in government revenues will soon leave them stranded. The government froze provincial transfers last week, as well as some public spending programs. It is only a matter of time until the labor unions turns their backs on the presidential duo. The loss of economic clout translates to less political power. The Peronists are split in two, with more than half of the party under the command of former President Duhalde. This is the reason why people are doubting that the Kirchners will make it to the end of the year.

Looks like it could be a bumpy 6 months.

Comments

Federico said…
The chances of the Kirchner leaving is remote but not impossible. It is a well know fact that the right after the Ks lost the vote in the senate Nestor told Cristina she had to quit, and that it took some of his closest ministers a great deal of effort to convince him not to.

In 2009 we have to pay A LOT of debt, and economy is not doing so good at the moment so...

Also in an inedit situation for Argentina, the vice president has a much better approval ratings than the president. This is good because in the case of the president quitting there is a good institutional backup (unlike 2001 when we didnt have a vice president).

Anyway, despite my dislike for the Kirchners, i for once hope she can finnish her term, the last thing we need is a "martir that was kick out by the evil oligarchy".