Will I witness a power change?

Reading some of the blogs and coverage of recent developments in Argentina I'm beginning to wonder if the Kirchners will still be in power by the time I leave in early 2009. More and more commentaries seem to suggest their time in office is numbered. Of course there seems to be a degree of wishful thinking in some of the pieces written, but the author of this particular article seems convinces that a leadership change is inevitable and present a fairly compelling case.

Although he cites various reasons for his argument, the one that most interests me is the idea of the Kirchner's decreasing financial clout.

The Kirchners increased spending during the crisis in order to buy friends and influence, but a reduction in government revenues will soon leave them stranded. The government froze provincial transfers last week, as well as some public spending programs. It is only a matter of time until the labor unions turns their backs on the presidential duo. The loss of economic clout translates to less political power. The Peronists are split in two, with more than half of the party under the command of former President Duhalde. This is the reason why people are doubting that the Kirchners will make it to the end of the year.

Looks like it could be a bumpy 6 months.

Comments

Fede C. said…
The chances of the Kirchner leaving is remote but not impossible. It is a well know fact that the right after the Ks lost the vote in the senate Nestor told Cristina she had to quit, and that it took some of his closest ministers a great deal of effort to convince him not to.

In 2009 we have to pay A LOT of debt, and economy is not doing so good at the moment so...

Also in an inedit situation for Argentina, the vice president has a much better approval ratings than the president. This is good because in the case of the president quitting there is a good institutional backup (unlike 2001 when we didnt have a vice president).

Anyway, despite my dislike for the Kirchners, i for once hope she can finnish her term, the last thing we need is a "martir that was kick out by the evil oligarchy".
13 August 2008 at 17:02
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Two thoughts about capitalism

As I mentioned earlier I am reading as much as I can about Argentina, currently focusing on finding out more about the Kirchners,triggered mainly by what seemed like some negative comments in some of the blogs I've been reading. While digging around I came across this interview that Time did with Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner in September 2007, before she was elected. It has some interesting quotes in it, and two in particular caught my attention and gave me pause for thought. You can't be a capitalist only when there are investment profits but then a socialist when you experience losses. and We're not averse to capitalism. But if they used to say, "Workers of the world unite!" then we also say today, "Capitalists of the world, assume your social responsibility!" I'm intrigued by both of these ideas. The former mainly because I it reminds me of the UK government bailing out failing mortgage lender Northern Rock earlier in the year and the recent US...
Read more

Daily Pic 139 : Yellow

Image
Yesterday Chris and I took a long stroll. Along the way we came across and area (just near Abasto) with thousands of shops selling store manequins. It was very strange indeed. In this city it seems that stores of a type seem to be located in the same area... all medical supplies in one place, all wool shops in one place and now these.
Read more